Will the American Fed Rate Cut Boost the Housing Market?

Residential homes in a US neighborhood
Aerial view of residential homes in a suburban US area

Aileen Barrameda is preparing to acquire a home in Los Angeles in the next months. Despite stubbornly high mortgage rates—now double what they were at the beginning of the health crisis—she remains undeterred.

"When I have the means to enter the housing market, I ought to act now, because properties are bound to get more expensive," she stated.

Housing affordability remains a key worry among Americans and a frequent point in economic discussions. Many had anticipated that interest rate cuts from the the Fed would help more people to qualify for mortgages.

Data from Freddie Mac, the average rate on a 30-year home loan—the most common type in the US—declined to 6.35 percent in the past seven days. This was the biggest weekly decline in the past year and the lowest level in 11 months.

However, for prospective purchasers, mortgage rates are not certain to fall much more than they already have, despite the Fed's interest rate cut on Wednesday.

A prospective homebuyer in a residential area
A prospective house hunter in California stands on a residential road

Keep in mind that the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions do not immediately impact mortgage rates. Instead, they alter the costs that financial institutions charge each other for overnight loans.

That, in turn, shapes what lenders charge their borrowers for loans and what they offer on deposits.

However, US banks had already lowered mortgage rates in anticipation of the Fed's action, meaning that further reductions may be limited. Potential buyers hoping for substantial relief could be frustrated.

Fed Chair the central bank chief noted as much in comments on Wednesday.

"Many observers believe it would need a substantial shift in rates to make a difference a lot for the housing sector," he noted, adding that lower interest rates could boost interest and help construction companies.

Meanwhile, the possibility of increasing inflation could push mortgage rates higher if banks fear that the Fed will refrain from cutting rates again in the near future. The Fed typically avoid cutting interest rates when price increases is seen as too high.

"I do think that the public are hoping for a big impact from the rate cut," said a real estate agent in a growing US market.

"I've been working to inform the majority of my clients, as well as my homeowners, that we've already seen the main part of what's going to happen."

Ms Stewart explained that the latest fall in mortgage rates over the past month has motivated a number of buyers. In fact, over one weekend recently, she submitted multiple bids and placed three deals under contract.

"A significant increase from anything in the past few years," she stated.

But, the US housing market remains too expensive for many people. This issue is not expected to be addressed by upcoming Fed actions or the recent dip in mortgage rates.

A significant number of homeowners secured historically low mortgage rates—in the 3 percent range—at the height of the pandemic, which they are reluctant to lose by selling their properties. As a result, homeowners who might otherwise downsize are choosing to stay put, reducing the supply of houses for purchase and increasing home prices.

About 80 percent of home loan holders have locked in a rate under the current average of 6.35%, according to a finance professor at the a leading academic institution.

Although each decline in mortgage rates helps relax the market slightly, there are no signs of significant improvement coming soon, Ms Fonseca commented.

"It's possible we are still a long way from balancing the markets," she stated.
A first-time homebuyer in a residential neighborhood
A first-time buyer in the Boise, Idaho area is pictured on a residential street

Another prospective buyer, a new homebuyer in the Boise area, has been monitoring the market for four years, while rents in the meantime.

In her case, the easing mortgage rates in the past month mean she is "even closer to pulling the trigger". She explained she is keen to buy in the near future to get ahead of a potential situation in which rates drop substantially further, igniting increased competition.

Borrowing costs are influencing Ms Carlson's decision-making when it comes to the kind of home that is feasible for her to purchase—such as the neighborhood, size, and reputation of the developer.

Still, mortgage rates are secondary to other factors, like time of year and finding a home that suits her requirements.

Modestly reduced mortgage rates are giving a degree of relief and spurring movement among buyers, said Matt Vernon at Bank of America. However in the grand scheme of things, the dip is unlikely to be sufficient to resolve a housing market experiencing pressure.

"There's guarded hope that we're moving in the right direction," he said.
"I don't think it's fundamentally changed buyers' perception of the obstacles in the market, but it's certainly gained their interest."
Carl Williams
Carl Williams

A tech journalist and analyst with over a decade of experience in covering emerging technologies and their impact on business and society.